PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Divorce rates are trickier to pin down than you may think. Here's why.

Many of us know plenty of couples who are PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerhappy in love and satisfied with their marriage. This is often expected "because a strong, happy marriage provides numerous benefits, including emotional support, financial stability and a sense of companionship," says Jennie Marie Battistin, a licensed marriage and family therapist and the director of the Hope Therapy Center in California. 

But there are times when a marriage goes south or a couple realizes they are no longer as compatible as they once were. Sometimes more serious issues also come into play. "When a marriage is filled with conflict, abuse or chronic unhappiness, ending the relationship can lead to well-being for both partners and their children," explains Battistin. 

In such cases, it can be helpful to peek at the latest divorce rate figures to know you aren't alone and that other couples have been there before.

How many marriages end in divorce? 

Breaking down the percentage of marriages that end in divorce can be tricky as the numbers can vary greatly by state, by religious affiliation, by race, by sexual orientation, by occupation and by the number of times one has been married.

Research shows that 41% of first marriages, for instance, end in divorce. By contrast, 60% of second marriages and 73% of third marriages end the same way.

One's stage of life can also contribute to how likely a marriage is to end. "Looking at divorce rates, we find that over the lifespan of a marriage, there are two primary peaks that tell us something about why marriages sometimes end," says Donald Cole, a licensed marriage and family counselor and the clinical director of the Gottman Institute in Seattle.

He explains that the first peak occurs around the fifth year of marriage. "These relationships tend to end due to escalating conflict and negative interaction patterns," he says. The second peak in divorce rates occurs around the 15th to 20th year of marriage. "These relationships often have less conflict but are characterized by couples who have drifted apart," he says. "Many times, such couples have focused all their energy and resources on raising their children and when the children get a little older or move out of the house, they begin to wonder if the marriage is still satisfying." 

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Are divorce rates increasing or decreasing?

While the number of couples getting divorced may paint a bleak picture, there are reasons for marriage-hopefuls to be optimistic. "There was a rapid increase in divorce rates beginning back in the 1960s, but that rate has leveled off in recent years and is even decreasing recently," says Cole.

Indeed, data from the National Center for Health Statistics shows that the divorce rate in the United States was 4 per 1,000 people in 2000, but the rate had dropped considerably down to 2.4 per 1,000 people by 2022.  

Among the reasons divorce rates have dropped are that many more couples and individuals are participating in counseling, less people have been getting married overall and "there has been a societal shift on delaying marriage until later in life when individuals or couples are more settled in a career," says Battistin. "This may be reducing financial stressors and may lead to more thoughtful and deliberate union formations."

"Marrying later also implies that the couple is more mature and with decreased relationship stressors," says Kim Polinder, a certified relationship coach and the host of the podcast “Engineering Love." 

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Why do people get divorced? 

But it isn't all good news for married folk because U.S. divorce rates remain high - the 13th highest rate in the world, per the World Population Review. What's more, as marriage rates are now returning to pre-pandemic levels, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, increased divorce rates may logically follow. 

And the most common reasons couples get divorced haven't really changed. In some cases, they may even be increasing. "In the digital age of social media, the ability to cheat on your partner, even emotionally, has become very accessible," says Polinder. This is significant because more than a third of all divorces are caused by infidelity or a loss of trust between spouses.

Other common reasons that couples get divorced include financial stress, lack of family support and increased conflict combined with poor resolution skills, says Battistin. "The absence of physical intimacy, loss of emotional connection, substance abuse, diverging values and differences in parenting can also all contribute to a declining marriage," she adds. 

Polinder cites "emotional neglect" as well. "This is where one or both partners feel unheard or undervalued, which can erode the connection that sustains a marriage," she explains. 

In the end, "we know that not all married couples will or should stay together," says Cole. "There are times when it's obvious to those of us who do therapy with couples that life in the future will be better if a divorce occurs." But he adds that 85% of the people who divorce end up getting married again within five years, "so the attempt to find positive relationships through marriage continues even after a divorce – and many people are able to do that successfully and happily."